Interest rates update

29 October 2009

Not much, in that he concludes with the following:

"And so, another MPC meeting goes by with on unchanged rates, seemingly increasing the likelihood that interest rate cuts over (or nearly over) for now. This, accompanied with the ongoing high debt-to-disposable income ratio and mediocre near term economic growth prospects, suggest that 2010 could well represent next "mini-peak" in the current residential market recovery, especially if interest rate hikes towards late next year transpire. This is perhaps a little disappointing to many, with our average house price inflation forecast expected to measure a mere 5% for next year as a whole.

So when could we expect a substantially more impressive performance for residential property? We believe that it is likely that we'll have to patiently wait for at least another interest rate cycle, because the household sector needs to be on a far more solid financial platform than the present. When would this come about? We believe that it will probably take one more set of interest rate hikes, with Firstrand's view that this could be late-2010/2011, and that thereafter, when rates ultimately start falling once more in the next cycle, the household sector will once again be on a firmer financial footing in terms of its debt levels relative to income levels. That firmer financial footing is what residential property relies heavily on, and it is unfortunately a slow process to get there."

FNB Interest Rates Update

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